vision for space exploration in financial trouble

vision for space exploration in financial trouble

Wshington Post reporter Guy Gugliotta reports that there is a projected 6 billion dollar deficit in the plan to finish the space station and retire space shuttle program. This means that there are several unpleasant (for NASA) options available. First, NASA could cut back on the number of shuttle flights remaining from about 19 to about 10, leaving several space station modules unlaunched. Second, NASA could push back the retirement of the shuttles and development of the CEV by several years, moving Mike Griffin's projection of an operational CEV in 2012 to perhaps 2014 or even later, which would further push back the proposed moon landing, maybe beyond the 2020 deadline set by president Bush. Third, Congress could fund both the shuttle and CEV programs, adding an extra 6 billion dollars to NASA's budget spread over the next several years.

The last possibility is to simply kill the shuttle program now and put that money into CEV development. This would leave the space station incomplete and create a nightmare for foreign policy due to international obligations.

Of these possibilities, I think the absolute worst would be the third one listed above, followed by the second one, then the fourth one. The first option posted above would be the best option, and it is one that I have proposed before.

But then, NASA doesn't take advice from this blogger, so we will probably end up with the worst option possible: full funding for 19 more shuttle flights plus a CEV delivered in 2012. The next fatal shuttle accident is a matter of when, not if. Should there be only 10 or fewer flights remaining, then NASA might (cross your fingers) make it to the retirement of the fleet without another loss of crew and vehicle. The more launches there are with these ancient derelicts though, the greater the chance of another disaster. If that happens, at the very least NASA faces another delay similar to the one it had after the Columbia was destroyed. That would put the remaining shuttle flights, the CEV, the vision for space exploration - maybe even NASA itself - at risk of being cancelled.

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